Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 4466 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–28%.

Safest bet that day YX 4466 RDU 06:45 → LGA 08:27 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2017 RDU 17:09 → LGA 18:43 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4466 Republic	RDU 06:45	LGA 08:27	6%	2%	1.2%	no record
DL 2036 Delta	RDU 06:30	LGA 08:04	7%	2%	1.0%	no record
AA 4774 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 09:24	LGA 11:17	8%	3%	1.2%	68%
AA 4749 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 16:05	LGA 18:02	21%	7%	1.5%	75%
AA 2727 American	RDU 13:04	LGA 14:46	26%	6%	1.3%	no record
AA 4560 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 20:20	LGA 22:14	28%	8%	1.8%	61%
DL 2017 Delta	RDU 17:09	LGA 18:43	28%	9%	1.2%	no record
DL 4689 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 06:00	LGA 07:43	17%	9%	4.2%	83%
DL 4685 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 13:09	LGA 15:00	27%	21%	12.7%	73%
DL 4956 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 08:30	LGA 10:12	32%	22%	2.6%	68%
DL 5101 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 19:59	LGA 21:58	35%	20%	7.2%	65%
DL 5184 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 15:01	LGA 16:44	40%	22%	7.9%	60%
DL 4667 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 11:29	LGA 13:12	45%	27%	7.5%	55%
DL 5180 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 17:05	LGA 18:52	56%	44%	18.2%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON