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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 3590 at 16:35, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3590 Southwest RDU 16:35 MCI 18:26 22% 8% 0.9% no record
DL 5230 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record RDU 08:00 MCI 09:42 15% 7% 2.9% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552 2h 02m Atlanta ATL 08:30 → MCI 09:38DL 2471 5h 28m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → RDU 05:33 → DTW 07:16DL 1388 1h 24m Detroit DTW 08:40 → MCI 09:44DL 2826 5h 11m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → RDU 06:00 → MSP 07:46DL 2538 2h 11m Minneapolis MSP 09:57 → MCI 11:29DL 1349 6h 29m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → MCI 11:11DL 2908 5h 51m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → RDU 05:52 → PHL 07:26AA 2781 2h 44m Philadelphia PHL 10:10 → MCI 12:14AA 1480 7h 22m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → RDU 07:30 → ATL 09:00DL 2478 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MCI 12:13DL 2747 5h 43m 97% 82%
AmericanDetails → RDU 05:02 → CLT 06:05AA 683 1h 10m Charlotte CLT 07:15 → MCI 08:48AA 2946 4h 46m 95% 82%
DeltaDetails → RDU 09:58 → ATL 11:22DL 2634 2h 02m Atlanta ATL 13:24 → MCI 14:29DL 1443 5h 31m 100% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → RDU 07:55 → PHL 09:21AA 896 49m Philadelphia PHL 10:10 → MCI 12:14AA 1480 5h 19m 73% 61%
AmericanDetails → RDU 19:26 → DFW 21:34AA 1888 1h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:44 → MCI 00:23 +1AA 1036 5h 57m 67% 40%
DeltaDetails → RDU 17:05 → LGA 18:52DL 5180 · flown by Endeavor 1h 03m New York LGA 19:55 → MCI 22:21DL 563 6h 16m 44% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON