Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1337 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 1337 RDU 06:00 → MCO 07:47 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest MX 1400 RDU 15:33 → MCO 17:25 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1337 Delta Flight history →	RDU 06:00	MCO 07:47	6%	3%	1.0%	91%
WN 4764 Southwest	RDU 08:10	MCO 10:01	7%	3%	0.7%	no record
MX 2070 Breeze	RDU 06:59	MCO 08:50	12%	4%	1.3%	no record
DL 1377 Delta Flight history →	RDU 11:26	MCO 13:15	16%	4%	0.9%	84%
WN 3566 Southwest	RDU 13:45	MCO 15:36	24%	10%	1.5%	no record
F9 1233 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 23:24	MCO 01:24	26%	14%	1.6%	68%
MX 119 Breeze	RDU 21:46	MCO 23:38	28%	10%	2.6%	no record
DL 1319 Delta Flight history →	RDU 17:03	MCO 19:05	29%	11%	1.6%	68%
WN 4913 Southwest	RDU 19:58	MCO 21:51	30%	13%	1.1%	no record
F9 1111 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 14:31	MCO 16:32	32%	14%	1.6%	69%
MX 1400 Breeze	RDU 15:33	MCO 17:25	32%	13%	2.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON