Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2538 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 2538 RDU 06:00 → MSP 07:46 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 2699 RDU 18:59 → MSP 20:48 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2538 Delta Flight history →	RDU 06:00	MSP 07:46	6%	3%	0.7%	91%
DL 2519 Delta Flight history →	RDU 11:33	MSP 13:17	11%	4%	0.7%	85%
DL 2521 Delta Flight history →	RDU 14:46	MSP 16:41	15%	5%	0.7%	86%
DL 2699 Delta Flight history →	RDU 18:59	MSP 20:48	25%	9%	0.8%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON