Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1482 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–57%.

Safest bet that day UA 1482 RDU 06:02 → ORD 07:28 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2949 RDU 18:22 → ORD 19:48 · 57% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1482 United	RDU 06:02	ORD 07:28	10%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 2849 American Flight history →	RDU 07:08	ORD 08:30	14%	6%	1.3%	85%
UA 1448 United Flight history →	RDU 10:00	ORD 11:26	15%	7%	0.8%	87%
UA 2826 United	RDU 08:00	ORD 09:25	15%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 5732 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RDU 10:59	ORD 12:29	18%	8%	1.7%	86%
AA 2123 American Flight history →	RDU 09:33	ORD 11:00	18%	8%	1.6%	89%
YX 3406 Republic	RDU 13:19	ORD 14:47	29%	11%	2.2%	no record
YX 4420 Republic	RDU 16:11	ORD 17:46	32%	16%	3.0%	no record
YX 4417 Republic	RDU 19:45	ORD 21:20	42%	19%	4.7%	no record
AA 2732 American	RDU 14:43	ORD 16:09	47%	21%	3.0%	no record
UA 481 United	RDU 16:58	ORD 18:26	48%	26%	1.7%	no record
AA 2949 American Flight history →	RDU 18:22	ORD 19:48	57%	27%	3.3%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON