Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2781 at 05:52 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–36%.

Safest bet that day AA 2781 RDU 05:52 → PHL 07:26 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest F9 2060 RDU 14:42 → PHL 16:19 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2781 American Flight history →	RDU 05:52	PHL 07:26	7%	4%	0.7%	82%
AA 706 American	RDU 10:31	PHL 12:05	15%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 896 American Flight history →	RDU 07:55	PHL 09:21	18%	4%	0.7%	80%
YX 4800 Republic	RDU 19:29	PHL 21:25	19%	6%	2.7%	no record
AA 3152 American	RDU 12:43	PHL 14:17	23%	7%	0.7%	no record
F9 4844 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 22:00	PHL 23:37	29%	14%	2.8%	74%
AA 5663 American flown by PSA Flight history →	RDU 15:15	PHL 16:58	30%	12%	1.6%	84%worse than usual
AA 1441 American Flight history →	RDU 17:41	PHL 19:22	36%	12%	1.4%	55%
F9 2060 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 14:42	PHL 16:19	37%	14%	1.4%	75%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON