tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:10, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2996 Southwest RDU 10:20 PHX 11:55 10% 2% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → RDU 06:00 → IAD 07:11UA 1789 1h 45m Dulles IAD 08:56 → PHX 10:47UA 709 7h 47m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552 1h 42m Atlanta ATL 08:10 → PHX 09:01DL 348 6h 51m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → RDU 06:00 → MSP 07:46DL 2538 1h 42m Minneapolis MSP 09:28 → PHX 10:43DL 2208 7h 43m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → RDU 05:33 → DTW 07:16DL 1388 1h 19m Detroit DTW 08:35 → PHX 09:44DL 1070 7h 11m 97% 83%
AmericanDetails → RDU 05:52 → PHL 07:26AA 2781 2h 07m Philadelphia PHL 09:33 → PHX 11:32AA 2644 8h 40m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → RDU 05:15 → JFK 07:12AA 4805 · flown by Republic 1h 48m New York JFK 09:00 → PHX 11:02AA 1186 8h 47m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → RDU 05:02 → CLT 06:05AA 683 1h 36m Charlotte CLT 07:41 → PHX 09:05AA 1678 7h 03m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796 8h 43m 99% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → RDU 16:59 → IAH 19:05UA 2407 48m Houston IAH 19:53 → PHX 20:42UA 2078 6h 43m 67% 47%
AmericanDetails → RDU 18:31 → CLT 19:34AA 1894 59m Charlotte CLT 20:33 → PHX 21:54AA 3057 6h 23m 58% 34%
AmericanDetails → RDU 18:22 → ORD 19:48AA 2949 1h 11m Chicago ORD 20:59 → PHX 22:54AA 3277 7h 32m 56% 23%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON