tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 4532 American flown by Republic Flight history → RDU 07:35 PIT 09:00 5% 2% 0.7% 90%
YX 4440 Republic RDU 18:26 PIT 20:02 14% 4% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RDU 07:00 → BOS 09:02DL 1054 2h 48m Boston BOS 11:50 → PIT 13:45DL 5731 · flown by Republic 6h 45m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 09:03 → PIT 10:45DL 1363 5h 35m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PIT 12:52DL 1345 6h 32m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → RDU 09:58 → ATL 11:22DL 2634 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 14:08 → PIT 15:50DL 1353 5h 52m 100% 87%
AmericanDetails → RDU 05:02 → CLT 06:05AA 683 2h 00m Charlotte CLT 08:05 → PIT 09:30AA 2310 4h 28m 97% 86%
JetBlueDetails → RDU 06:00 → BOS 07:59B6 1484 2h 46m Boston BOS 10:45 → PIT 12:49B6 385 6h 49m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → RDU 06:00 → IAD 07:11UA 1789 1h 19m Dulles IAD 08:30 → PIT 09:40UA 6119 · flown by Mesa 3h 40m 97% 84%
AmericanDetails → RDU 12:08 → JFK 13:59AA 4765 · flown by Republic 2h 52m New York JFK 16:51 → PIT 18:38AA 4734 · flown by Republic 6h 30m 98% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → RDU 17:05 → LGA 18:52DL 5180 · flown by Endeavor 2h 28m New York LGA 21:20 → PIT 23:09DL 5722 · flown by Republic 6h 04m 70% 51%
AmericanDetails → RDU 18:22 → ORD 19:48AA 2949 54m Chicago ORD 20:42 → PIT 23:22AA 4527 · flown by Republic 5h 00m 42% 27%
AmericanDetails → RDU 18:31 → CLT 19:34AA 1894 51m Charlotte CLT 20:25 → PIT 21:57AA 2676 3h 26m 39% 26%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON