tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 35% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 672 Alaska RDU 00:39 SEA 03:16 11% 5% 1.1% no record
DL 354 Delta Flight history → RDU 06:38 SEA 09:25 12% 3% 0.8% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RDU 06:00 → MSP 07:46DL 2538 3h 24m Minneapolis MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889 10h 00m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552 3h 22m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774 10h 03m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → RDU 07:00 → AUS 09:11DL 4921 · flown by Endeavor 2h 03m Austin AUS 11:14 → SEA 13:45DL 1684 9h 45m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → RDU 06:00 → MCO 07:47DL 1337 1h 18m Orlando MCO 09:05 → SEA 12:12DL 347 9h 12m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → RDU 07:30 → ATL 09:00DL 2478 3h 33m Atlanta ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629 10h 20m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → RDU 07:00 → BOS 09:02DL 1054 2h 27m Boston BOS 11:29 → SEA 14:50DL 332 10h 50m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → RDU 10:32 → IAD 11:43UA 1535 1h 17m Dulles IAD 13:00 → SEA 15:32UA 1824 8h 00m 95% 79%
DeltaDetails → RDU 05:33 → DTW 07:16DL 1388 1h 19m Detroit DTW 08:35 → SEA 10:34DL 734 8h 01m 97% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → RDU 15:16 → PHL 16:59AA 5663 · flown by PSA 46m Philadelphia PHL 17:45 → SEA 20:37AA 1037 8h 21m 64% 38%
AmericanDetails → RDU 19:26 → DFW 21:34AA 1888 1h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:41 → SEA 00:57 +1AA 1487 8h 31m 67% 36%
UnitedDetails → RDU 16:22 → DEN 18:25UA 2288 46m Denver DEN 19:11 → SEA 21:00UA 2767 7h 38m 35% 16%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON