Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Detroit, leaving 05:33, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 31% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 580 Delta Flight history →	RDU 07:10	SLC 09:42	11%	3%	0.9%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 08:15 → SLC 10:14DL 830	7h 04m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	RDU 05:33 → DTW 07:16DL 1388	1h 09m Detroit	DTW 08:25 → SLC 10:21DL 698	6h 48m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387	7h 50m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:00 → MCO 07:47DL 1337	2h 58m Orlando	MCO 10:45 → SLC 13:21DL 2031	9h 21m	99%	79%
American Details →	RDU 05:02 → CLT 06:05AA 683	3h 27m Charlotte	CLT 09:32 → SLC 11:53AA 1895	8h 51m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	RDU 07:00 → BOS 09:02DL 1054	2h 13m Boston	BOS 11:15 → SLC 14:20DL 464	9h 20m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	RDU 07:28 → AUS 09:39DL 4921 · flown by Endeavor	2h 41m Austin	AUS 12:20 → SLC 14:09DL 2671	8h 41m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	RDU 09:22 → MCI 11:10DL 5230 · flown by Endeavor	3h 45m Kansas City	MCI 14:55 → SLC 16:32DL 2882	9h 10m	99%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	RDU 16:26 → AUS 18:39DL 4967 · flown by Endeavor	46m Austin	AUS 19:25 → SLC 21:21DL 2581	6h 55m	54%	38%
United Details →	RDU 16:22 → DEN 18:25UA 2288	58m Denver	DEN 19:23 → SLC 20:56UA 2769	6h 34m	58%	28%
American Details →	RDU 19:26 → DFW 21:34AA 1888	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:20 → SLC 00:03 +1AA 2507	6h 37m	31%	14%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON