tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3080 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3080 Southwest RDU 06:10 STL 07:30 4% 2% 0.7% no record
WN 3572 Southwest RDU 19:45 STL 21:06 23% 7% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RDU 05:33 → DTW 07:16DL 1388 1h 34m Detroit DTW 08:50 → STL 09:31DL 2868 4h 58m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → RDU 06:00 → MSP 07:46DL 2538 1h 18m Minneapolis MSP 09:04 → STL 10:42DL 1289 5h 42m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552 1h 15m Atlanta ATL 07:43 → STL 08:19DL 1571 4h 09m 96% 86%
AmericanDetails → RDU 05:52 → PHL 07:26AA 2781 1h 25m Philadelphia PHL 08:51 → STL 10:23AA 1739 5h 31m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566 6h 57m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → RDU 05:02 → CLT 06:05AA 683 1h 21m Charlotte CLT 07:26 → STL 08:29AA 2497 4h 27m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → RDU 11:33 → MSP 13:17DL 2519 1h 54m Minneapolis MSP 15:11 → STL 16:50DL 1224 6h 17m 97% 80%
UnitedDetails → RDU 06:15 → EWR 07:55UA 1525 1h 46m Newark EWR 09:41 → STL 11:18UA 2311 6h 03m 97% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → RDU 11:41 → DFW 13:55AA 2683 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:44 → STL 16:37AA 3944 · flown by Envoy 5h 56m 73% 53%
AmericanDetails → RDU 18:43 → DFW 20:47AA 2091 1h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:50 → STL 23:45AA 1445 6h 02m 62% 35%
DeltaDetails → RDU 11:29 → LGA 13:12DL 4667 · flown by Endeavor 47m New York LGA 13:59 → STL 15:50DL 4905 · flown by Endeavor 5h 21m 49% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON