tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2168 Southwest RIC 12:10 BNA 13:07 11% 3% 0.5% no record
G4 1109 Allegiant RIC 11:48 BNA 12:41 19% 8% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Richmond). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RIC 05:45 → ATL 07:17DL 1460 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → BNA 09:50DL 1155 5h 05m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → RIC 06:55 → ATL 08:39DL 1402 2h 42m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 5h 35m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → RIC 06:00 → ORD 07:23UA 224 3h 14m Chicago ORD 10:37 → BNA 12:29UA 2414 7h 29m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → RIC 06:30 → CLT 07:54AA 1063 3h 31m Charlotte CLT 11:25 → BNA 11:55AA 2409 6h 25m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → RIC 06:30 → IAD 07:33UA 4503 · flown by GoJet 57m Dulles IAD 08:30 → BNA 09:29UA 1366 3h 59m 87% 80%
AmericanDetails → RIC 06:26 → PHL 07:40AA 5973 · flown by Piedmont 1h 55m Philadelphia PHL 09:35 → BNA 10:50AA 1320 5h 24m 93% 80%
DeltaDetails → RIC 10:19 → ATL 11:58DL 1462 1h 56m Atlanta ATL 13:54 → BNA 14:03DL 3159 4h 44m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → RIC 11:36 → BOS 13:28DL 5622 · flown by Republic 1h 12m Boston BOS 14:40 → BNA 16:36DL 2677 6h 00m 93% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → RIC 07:30 → PHL 08:44AA 5830 · flown by Piedmont 51m Philadelphia PHL 09:35 → BNA 10:50AA 1320 4h 20m 71% 61%
AmericanDetails → RIC 19:31 → DFW 21:46AA 2067 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:42 → BNA 00:39 +1AA 2979 6h 08m 63% 36%
AmericanDetails → RIC 15:14 → DFW 17:30AA 1915 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:18 → BNA 20:17AA 1076 6h 03m 50% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON