tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3574 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3574 Southwest RIC 06:30 BWI 07:31 5% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 698 Southwest RIC 17:55 BWI 18:56 24% 5% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RIC 05:45 → ATL 07:17DL 1460 1h 38m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → BWI 10:47DL 801 5h 02m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → RIC 11:36 → BOS 13:28DL 5622 · flown by Republic 2h 22m Boston BOS 15:50 → BWI 17:42DL 5644 · flown by Republic 6h 06m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → RIC 06:00 → DTW 07:55DL 5453 · flown by Endeavor 2h 20m Detroit DTW 10:15 → BWI 11:47DL 1546 5h 47m 94% 84%
DeltaDetails → RIC 06:55 → ATL 08:39DL 1402 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → BWI 13:01DL 2711 6h 06m 95% 83%
DeltaDetails → RIC 10:19 → ATL 11:58DL 1462 2h 04m Atlanta ATL 14:02 → BWI 15:53DL 2799 5h 34m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → RIC 06:30 → CLT 07:54AA 1063 3h 37m Charlotte CLT 11:31 → BWI 13:09AA 2733 6h 39m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → RIC 13:03 → ATL 14:52DL 2650 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 17:57 → BWI 20:02DL 2928 6h 59m 98% 74%
UnitedDetails → RIC 06:00 → ORD 07:23UA 224 3h 41m Chicago ORD 11:04 → BWI 13:59UA 8253 7h 59m 100% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → RIC 20:15 → CLT 21:36AA 1909 1h 09m Charlotte CLT 22:45 → BWI 00:14 +1AA 1318 3h 59m 72% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON