Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2493 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 40–44%.

Safest bet that day UA 2493 RIC 08:15 → DEN 10:07 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest WN 2155 RIC 17:00 → DEN 18:57 · 44% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2493 United Flight history →	RIC 08:15	DEN 10:07	14%	4%	0.8%	87%
UA 498 United	RIC 16:08	DEN 18:08	40%	11%	1.0%	no record
WN 2155 Southwest	RIC 17:00	DEN 18:57	44%	9%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	RIC 05:45 → ATL 07:17DL 1460	57m Atlanta	ATL 08:14 → DEN 09:26DL 346	5h 41m	89%	77%
Delta Details →	RIC 10:19 → ATL 11:58DL 1462	57m Atlanta	ATL 12:55 → DEN 14:00DL 957	5h 41m	87%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON