tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 3073 at 17:00, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 3073 Delta RIC 17:00 DTW 18:49 19% 5% 0.7% no record
DL 5453 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record RIC 06:00 DTW 07:55 17% 8% 1.9% 83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RIC 05:59 → LGA 07:25DL 5822 · flown by Republic 2h 00m New York LGA 09:25 → DTW 11:24DL 1078 5h 25m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → RIC 06:04 → BOS 08:00DL 5697 · flown by Republic 1h 15m Boston BOS 09:15 → DTW 11:24DL 1748 5h 20m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → RIC 05:45 → ATL 07:17DL 1460 3h 43m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240 7h 11m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → RIC 06:30 → CLT 07:54AA 1063 3h 25m Charlotte CLT 11:19 → DTW 13:06AA 1683 6h 36m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → RIC 10:19 → ATL 11:58DL 1462 2h 02m Atlanta ATL 14:00 → DTW 15:55DL 1031 5h 36m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → RIC 06:00 → ORD 07:23UA 224 3h 27m Chicago ORD 10:50 → DTW 13:27UA 5756 · flown by SkyWest 7h 27m 100% 79%
AmericanDetails → RIC 06:26 → PHL 07:40AA 5973 · flown by Piedmont 1h 26m Philadelphia PHL 09:06 → DTW 11:00AA 5480 · flown by PSA 4h 34m 90% 79%
UnitedDetails → RIC 06:30 → IAD 07:33UA 4503 · flown by GoJet 1h 02m Dulles IAD 08:35 → DTW 10:14UA 6137 · flown by Mesa 3h 44m 87% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → RIC 17:59 → LGA 19:27DL 5516 · flown by Endeavor 1h 03m New York LGA 20:30 → DTW 22:51DL 1014 4h 52m 50% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON