Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 6231 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	RIC 16:52	IAH 19:10	19%	8%	0.3%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Richmond). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	RIC 10:50 → IAD 11:55UA 4485 · flown by GoJet	3h 11m Dulles	IAD 15:06 → IAH 17:34UA 2607	7h 44m	98%	83%
American Details →	RIC 06:26 → PHL 07:40AA 5973 · flown by Piedmont	3h 02m Philadelphia	PHL 10:42 → IAH 13:19AA 836	7h 53m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	RIC 05:59 → LGA 07:25DL 5822 · flown by Republic	3h 25m New York	LGA 10:50 → IAH 13:32DL 2099	8h 33m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	RIC 06:35 → MSP 08:40DL 5344 · flown by Endeavor	1h 44m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → IAH 13:14DL 2673	7h 39m	94%	79%
United Details →	RIC 06:00 → ORD 07:23UA 224	1h 28m Chicago	ORD 08:51 → IAH 11:51UA 535	6h 51m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	RIC 05:45 → ATL 07:17DL 1460	2h 48m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → IAH 11:14DL 1682	6h 29m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	RIC 06:55 → ATL 08:39DL 1402	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572	7h 38m	97%	77%
United Details →	RIC 06:30 → IAD 07:33UA 4503 · flown by GoJet	1h 07m Dulles	IAD 08:40 → IAH 10:58UA 1524	5h 28m	89%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	RIC 10:54 → PHL 12:09AA 5894 · flown by Piedmont	53m Philadelphia	PHL 13:02 → IAH 15:39AA 2486	5h 45m	68%	53%
United Details →	RIC 18:30 → EWR 20:00UA 3476 · flown by Republic	50m Newark	EWR 20:50 → IAH 23:43UA 2425	6h 13m	60%	39%
American Details →	RIC 15:14 → DFW 17:30AA 1915	1h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:36 → IAH 19:54AA 1392	5h 40m	70%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON