Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 5822 at 05:59 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 5822 RIC 05:59 → LGA 07:25 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AA 4673 RIC 18:51 → LGA 20:17 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 5822 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	RIC 05:59	LGA 07:25	4%	3%	1.2%	79%
YX 4474 Republic	RIC 06:12	LGA 07:38	6%	3%	1.2%	no record
AA 4584 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RIC 09:55	LGA 11:21	8%	5%	1.3%	93%
YX 5799 Republic	RIC 09:50	LGA 11:16	9%	5%	1.3%	no record
YX 4429 Republic	RIC 13:02	LGA 14:28	21%	7%	2.1%	no record
YX 5784 Republic	RIC 19:51	LGA 21:17	25%	8%	2.0%	no record
YX 5785 Republic	RIC 17:28	LGA 18:54	25%	8%	1.8%	no record
AA 4673 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RIC 18:51	LGA 20:17	27%	9%	2.2%	62%
DL 5313 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RIC 13:00	LGA 14:42	30%	12%	7.0%	70%
DL 5516 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RIC 17:59	LGA 19:27	52%	25%	15.6%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON