Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3604 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3604 Southwest	RIC 08:10	MDW 09:21	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 3577 Southwest	RIC 19:30	MDW 20:43	31%	8%	2.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Richmond). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RIC 05:45 → ATL 07:17DL 1460	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	7h 11m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	RIC 10:19 → ATL 11:58DL 1462	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	6h 56m	98%	72%
Delta Details →	RIC 06:00 → DTW 07:55DL 5453 · flown by Endeavor	55m Detroit	DTW 08:50 → MDW 09:14DL 4684 · flown by Endeavor	4h 14m	83%	61%
Delta Details →	RIC 06:35 → MSP 08:40DL 5344 · flown by Endeavor	2h 50m Minneapolis	MSP 11:30 → MDW 13:09DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	7h 34m	96%	57%
Delta Details →	RIC 18:31 → ATL 20:24DL 1214	51m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	4h 44m	77%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON