Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 604 at 06:25, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 604 American Flight history →	RIC 06:25	MIA 08:52	14%	4%	1.1%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RIC 05:45 → ATL 07:17DL 1460	1h 38m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	5h 12m	96%	80%
United Details →	RIC 06:30 → IAD 07:33UA 4503 · flown by GoJet	1h 12m Dulles	IAD 08:45 → MIA 11:35UA 1073	5h 05m	91%	74%
Delta Details →	RIC 06:00 → DTW 07:55DL 5453 · flown by Endeavor	1h 27m Detroit	DTW 09:22 → MIA 12:28DL 1468	6h 28m	89%	73%
Delta Details →	RIC 06:55 → ATL 08:39DL 1402	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332	6h 12m	95%	69%
Delta Details →	RIC 18:31 → ATL 20:24DL 1214	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	6h 24m	94%	66%
American Details →	RIC 06:30 → CLT 07:54AA 1063	3h 08m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	6h 41m	98%	65%
Delta Details →	RIC 05:59 → LGA 07:25DL 5822 · flown by Republic	3h 50m New York	LGA 11:15 → MIA 14:24DL 1538	8h 25m	100%	65%
Delta Details →	RIC 11:36 → BOS 13:28DL 5622 · flown by Republic	1h 47m Boston	BOS 15:15 → MIA 18:58DL 776	7h 22m	95%	63%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	RIC 20:15 → CLT 21:36AA 1909	1h 11m Charlotte	CLT 22:47 → MIA 00:48 +1AA 3068	4h 33m	73%	45%
American Details →	RIC 17:34 → PHL 18:54AA 5895 · flown by Piedmont	49m Philadelphia	PHL 19:43 → MIA 22:29AA 2132	4h 55m	57%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON