tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 5344 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record RIC 06:35 MSP 08:40 12% 6% 0.7% 88%
DL 5063 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record RIC 14:15 MSP 16:19 38% 27% 0.0% 62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Richmond). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RIC 06:04 → BOS 08:00DL 5697 · flown by Republic 3h 50m Boston BOS 11:50 → MSP 14:02DL 1103 8h 58m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → RIC 05:45 → ATL 07:17DL 1460 2h 38m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:30DL 2090 6h 45m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → RIC 05:59 → LGA 07:25DL 5822 · flown by Republic 3h 45m New York LGA 11:10 → MSP 13:10DL 2409 8h 11m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → RIC 06:30 → IAD 07:33UA 4503 · flown by GoJet 1h 17m Dulles IAD 08:50 → MSP 10:41UA 2604 5h 11m 92% 84%
DeltaDetails → RIC 06:55 → ATL 08:39DL 1402 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 12:20 → MSP 13:50DL 2901 7h 55m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → RIC 06:00 → ORD 07:23UA 224 1h 27m Chicago ORD 08:50 → MSP 10:36UA 2805 5h 36m 96% 81%
AmericanDetails → RIC 06:30 → CLT 07:54AA 1063 3h 23m Charlotte CLT 11:17 → MSP 12:59AA 1671 7h 29m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → RIC 07:00 → JFK 08:30DL 4660 · flown by Endeavor 3h 05m New York JFK 11:35 → MSP 13:50DL 2414 7h 50m 97% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → RIC 10:54 → PHL 12:09AA 5894 · flown by Piedmont 50m Philadelphia PHL 12:59 → MSP 14:57AA 3294 5h 03m 68% 58%
UnitedDetails → RIC 16:52 → IAH 19:10UA 6231 · flown by Mesa 52m Houston IAH 20:02 → MSP 23:12UA 1872 7h 20m 73% 52%
DeltaDetails → RIC 13:03 → ATL 14:52DL 2650 46m Atlanta ATL 15:38 → MSP 17:16DL 2981 5h 13m 68% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON