Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 224 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 44–50%.

Safest bet that day UA 224 RIC 06:00 → ORD 07:23 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest OO 6249 RIC 20:39 → ORD 21:50 · 50% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 224 United Flight history →	RIC 06:00	ORD 07:23	12%	6%	1.0%	82%
YX 3640 Republic	RIC 10:37	ORD 11:53	16%	5%	1.3%	no record
AA 1242 American	RIC 08:30	ORD 09:42	25%	8%	1.5%	no record
AA 2737 American	RIC 12:35	ORD 13:48	39%	12%	3.6%	no record
YX 3693 Republic	RIC 17:44	ORD 19:05	44%	17%	3.4%	no record
OO 6249 SkyWest	RIC 20:39	ORD 21:50	50%	20%	4.3%	no record
UA 4547 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	RIC 13:00	ORD 14:26	13%	3%	3.2%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON