Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 20–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5089 RIC 15:51 → PHL 17:14 · 20% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5018 RIC 17:51 → PHL 19:15 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5089 PSA	RIC 15:51	PHL 17:14	20%	11%	1.4%	no record
OH 5018 PSA	RIC 17:51	PHL 19:15	23%	12%	1.5%	no record
AA 5973 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	RIC 06:26	PHL 07:40	14%	9%	1.4%	86%
AA 5843 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	RIC 15:00	PHL 16:20	20%	7%	2.2%	80%
AA 5830 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	RIC 07:30	PHL 08:44	23%	14%	1.1%	77%
AA 5894 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	RIC 10:54	PHL 12:09	28%	12%	0.0%	72%
AA 5895 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	RIC 17:34	PHL 18:54	32%	26%	5.6%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON