Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Denver, leaving 09:05, is the safest bet: 61% chance of reaching Atlanta on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 391 Delta Flight history →	RNO 01:04	ATL 08:27	13%	4%	0.8%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 3 h ahead of Reno). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	RNO 06:10 → SFO 07:25UA 1954	1h 27m San Francisco	SFO 08:52 → ATL 16:43UA 1896	7h 33m	98%	81%
United Details →	RNO 05:30 → DEN 08:47UA 225	1h 24m Denver	DEN 10:11 → ATL 15:23UA 2806	6h 53m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	RNO 05:30 → SLC 07:52DL 1650	2h 03m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:55 → ATL 15:39DL 835	7h 09m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	RNO 09:05 → SLC 11:40DL 3719 · flown by SkyWest	1h 55m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906	7h 17m	100%	73%
Delta Details →	RNO 10:33 → LAX 12:13DL 4099 · flown by SkyWest	3h 55m Los Angeles	LAX 16:08 → ATL 23:30DL 483	9h 57m	100%	72%
Delta Details →	RNO 17:35 → SLC 20:07DL 3732 · flown by SkyWest	3h 28m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:35 → ATL 05:14 +1DL 912	8h 39m	99%	72%
Delta Details →	RNO 07:00 → LAX 08:45DL 4106 · flown by SkyWest	2h 15m Los Angeles	LAX 11:00 → ATL 18:37DL 528	8h 37m	97%	72%
American Details →	RNO 05:22 → DFW 10:41AA 1361	1h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:08 → ATL 15:33AA 1008	7h 11m	93%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	RNO 08:10 → SFO 09:25UA 755	1h 24m San Francisco	SFO 10:49 → ATL 18:40UA 702	7h 30m	74%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON