tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 1842 at 08:20, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1842 Southwest RNO 08:20 AUS 13:40 23% 6% 1.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Reno). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RNO 01:04 → ATL 08:27DL 391 2h 38m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011 9h 21m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → RNO 05:30 → DEN 08:47UA 225 1h 18m Denver DEN 10:05 → AUS 13:20UA 1026 5h 50m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → RNO 05:30 → SLC 07:52DL 1650 2h 53m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → AUS 14:50DL 3955 · flown by SkyWest 7h 20m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → RNO 06:10 → SFO 07:25UA 1954 1h 01m San Francisco SFO 08:26 → AUS 14:02UA 1107 5h 52m 91% 77%
UnitedDetails → RNO 13:58 → SFO 15:32UA 2279 3h 04m San Francisco SFO 18:36 → AUS 00:16 +1UA 2332 8h 18m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → RNO 09:05 → SLC 11:40DL 3719 · flown by SkyWest 1h 39m Salt Lake City SLC 13:19 → AUS 17:07DL 2689 6h 02m 100% 71%
DeltaDetails → RNO 10:33 → LAX 12:13DL 4099 · flown by SkyWest 3h 42m Los Angeles LAX 15:55 → AUS 20:58DL 622 8h 25m 100% 71%
UnitedDetails → RNO 11:38 → SFO 13:03UA 5899 · flown by SkyWest 3h 29m San Francisco SFO 16:32 → AUS 22:16UA 2150 8h 38m 99% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → RNO 13:58 → SFO 15:32UA 2279 1h 00m San Francisco SFO 16:32 → AUS 22:16UA 2150 6h 18m 72% 51%
AmericanDetails → RNO 11:03 → DFW 16:27AA 1911 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:19 → AUS 18:27AA 3722 · flown by Envoy 5h 24m 69% 49%
AmericanDetails → RNO 14:17 → DFW 19:46AA 324 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:33 → AUS 21:37AA 2707 5h 20m 58% 29%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON