tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3606 at 07:03 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3606 Southwest RNO 07:03 BUR 08:35 7% 3% 0.9% no record
WN 3165 Southwest RNO 18:00 BUR 19:33 30% 12% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RNO 05:30 → SLC 07:52DL 1650 2h 53m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 6h 24m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → RNO 06:10 → SFO 07:25UA 1954 1h 08m San Francisco SFO 08:33 → BUR 09:57UA 2363 3h 47m 94% 80%
DeltaDetails → RNO 09:05 → SLC 11:40DL 3719 · flown by SkyWest 3h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 15:05 → BUR 16:12DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest 7h 07m 100% 78%
UnitedDetails → RNO 05:30 → DEN 08:47UA 225 2h 28m Denver DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154 7h 18m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → RNO 13:58 → SFO 15:32UA 2279 2h 30m San Francisco SFO 18:02 → BUR 19:28UA 2001 5h 30m 97% 69%
AlaskaDetails → RNO 14:46 → SEA 16:43AS 601 2h 41m Seattle SEA 19:24 → BUR 22:03AS 727 7h 17m 96% 67%
UnitedDetails → RNO 11:38 → SFO 13:03UA 5899 · flown by SkyWest 3h 07m San Francisco SFO 16:10 → BUR 17:36UA 2764 5h 58m 99% 59%
UnitedDetails → RNO 13:41 → DEN 16:50UA 1534 2h 23m Denver DEN 19:13 → BUR 20:43UA 2411 7h 02m 87% 46%
Tight connection: often missed
FrontierDetails → RNO 08:52 → LAS 10:24F9 4248 50m Las Vegas LAS 11:14 → BUR 12:37F9 4107 3h 45m 71% 50%
UnitedDetails → RNO 11:38 → SFO 13:03UA 5899 · flown by SkyWest 47m San Francisco SFO 13:50 → BUR 15:17UA 626 3h 39m 61% 37%
UnitedDetails → RNO 08:10 → SFO 09:25UA 755 58m San Francisco SFO 10:23 → BUR 11:49UA 2115 3h 39m 55% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON