Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 126 at 05:56 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 126 RNO 05:56 → DEN 09:10 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4157 RNO 14:55 → DEN 18:09 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 126 Southwest	RNO 05:56	DEN 09:10	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 225 United Flight history →	RNO 05:30	DEN 08:47	7%	4%	0.8%	93%
UA 347 United Flight history →	RNO 09:05	DEN 12:21	14%	5%	1.1%	90%
WN 470 Southwest	RNO 10:45	DEN 13:58	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 5739 SkyWest	RNO 11:19	DEN 14:57	21%	8%	1.1%	no record
OO 5316 SkyWest	RNO 15:57	DEN 19:16	31%	12%	1.0%	no record
UA 1534 United Flight history →	RNO 13:41	DEN 16:50	31%	11%	0.9%	81%worse than usual
WN 4157 Southwest	RNO 14:55	DEN 18:09	37%	10%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON