Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3582 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 3582 RNO 05:05 → LAS 06:30 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4242 RNO 18:52 → LAS 20:24 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3582 Southwest	RNO 05:05	LAS 06:30	4%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 4334 Southwest	RNO 06:15	LAS 07:40	4%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 2773 Southwest	RNO 09:45	LAS 11:10	11%	4%	1.6%	no record
WN 3558 Southwest	RNO 08:50	LAS 10:15	15%	4%	1.8%	no record
WN 2259 Southwest	RNO 12:40	LAS 14:06	22%	7%	0.7%	no record
WN 4953 Southwest	RNO 21:25	LAS 22:51	25%	9%	0.7%	no record
F9 4248 Frontier Flight history →	RNO 08:52	LAS 10:24	25%	10%	3.5%	70%
WN 2963 Southwest	RNO 14:55	LAS 16:20	26%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 2966 Southwest	RNO 16:05	LAS 17:31	30%	11%	0.7%	no record
WN 3612 Southwest	RNO 19:50	LAS 21:15	31%	10%	0.6%	no record
WN 3594 Southwest	RNO 17:20	LAS 18:46	32%	12%	0.6%	no record
F9 4242 Frontier Flight history →	RNO 18:52	LAS 20:24	38%	15%	1.7%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON