Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 4099 at 10:33 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 4099 RNO 10:33 → LAX 12:13 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 2681 RNO 16:12 → LAX 17:48 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4099 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RNO 10:33	LAX 12:13	13%	5%	0.6%	92%
DL 4106 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RNO 07:00	LAX 08:45	15%	6%	0.9%	88%
DL 3902 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RNO 15:13	LAX 16:53	15%	5%	0.7%	84%
OO 457 SkyWest	RNO 10:12	LAX 11:50	17%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 4126 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RNO 19:02	LAX 20:47	18%	7%	0.7%	84%
WN 2836 Southwest	RNO 10:20	LAX 11:55	18%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 1905 United	RNO 07:29	LAX 09:04	20%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 2681 United	RNO 16:12	LAX 17:48	26%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON