tailodds FORECAST
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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 2 h ahead of Reno). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RNO 05:30 → SLC 07:52DL 1650 3h 18m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924 7h 10m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → RNO 10:33 → LAX 12:13DL 4099 · flown by SkyWest 3h 09m Los Angeles LAX 15:22 → MSP 20:59DL 2198 8h 26m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → RNO 01:04 → ATL 08:27DL 391 1h 28m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:30DL 2090 8h 26m 92% 80%
DeltaDetails → RNO 07:00 → LAX 08:45DL 4106 · flown by SkyWest 2h 30m Los Angeles LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413 7h 50m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → RNO 05:30 → DEN 08:47UA 225 53m Denver DEN 09:40 → MSP 12:40UA 397 5h 10m 90% 78%
DeltaDetails → RNO 17:35 → SLC 20:07DL 3732 · flown by SkyWest 3h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 23:17 → MSP 02:49 +1DL 8847 7h 14m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → RNO 09:05 → SLC 11:40DL 3719 · flown by SkyWest 2h 20m Salt Lake City SLC 14:00 → MSP 17:32DL 2936 6h 27m 100% 75%
UnitedDetails → RNO 06:10 → SFO 07:25UA 1954 3h 13m San Francisco SFO 10:38 → MSP 16:34UA 1050 8h 24m 100% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → RNO 08:10 → SFO 09:25UA 755 1h 13m San Francisco SFO 10:38 → MSP 16:34UA 1050 6h 24m 64% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON