tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Denver, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 67% chance of reaching Chicago on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1819 United RNO 14:19 ORD 20:25 41% 23% 1.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Reno). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RNO 01:04 → ATL 08:27DL 391 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 11:08 → ORD 12:20DL 2894 9h 16m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → RNO 13:58 → SFO 15:32UA 2279 3h 17m San Francisco SFO 18:49 → ORD 00:59 +1UA 1958 9h 01m 98% 70%
UnitedDetails → RNO 05:30 → DEN 08:47UA 225 2h 28m Denver DEN 11:15 → ORD 14:55UA 2865 7h 25m 99% 67%
AmericanDetails → RNO 13:06 → PHX 15:00AA 1437 3h 53m Phoenix PHX 18:53 → ORD 00:31 +1AA 2201 9h 25m 100% 66%
AlaskaDetails → RNO 19:50 → SEA 21:57AS 599 1h 44m Seattle SEA 23:41 → ORD 05:41 +1AS 285 7h 51m 97% 66%
AmericanDetails → RNO 19:28 → PHX 21:27AA 1741 2h 15m Phoenix PHX 23:42 → ORD 05:06 +1AA 2059 7h 38m 90% 64%
DeltaDetails → RNO 07:00 → LAX 08:45DL 4106 · flown by SkyWest 2h 39m Los Angeles LAX 11:24 → ORD 17:35DL 2368 8h 35m 97% 58%
UnitedDetails → RNO 06:10 → SFO 07:25UA 1954 50m San Francisco SFO 08:15 → ORD 14:50UA 1568 6h 40m 77% 57%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → RNO 14:46 → SEA 16:43AS 601 1h 05m Seattle SEA 17:48 → ORD 23:59AS 538 7h 13m 63% 41%
UnitedDetails → RNO 11:38 → SFO 13:03UA 5899 · flown by SkyWest 56m San Francisco SFO 13:59 → ORD 20:19UA 1922 6h 41m 67% 32%
UnitedDetails → RNO 08:10 → SFO 09:25UA 755 58m San Francisco SFO 10:23 → ORD 16:41UA 2827 6h 31m 55% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON