tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AS 363 at 08:04, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 363 Alaska RNO 08:04 PDX 09:49 20% 6% 1.9% no record
AS 2127 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record RNO 17:35 PDX 19:09 2% 0% 3.8% 98%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RNO 05:30 → SLC 07:52DL 1650 3h 23m Salt Lake City SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209 6h 40m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → RNO 05:30 → DEN 08:47UA 225 2h 40m Denver DEN 11:27 → PDX 13:09UA 644 7h 39m 99% 81%
AlaskaDetails → RNO 14:46 → SEA 16:43AS 601 3h 42m Seattle SEA 20:25 → PDX 21:22AS 2387 · flown by Horizon 6h 36m 99% 81%
AlaskaDetails → RNO 07:48 → SAN 09:25AS 2234 · flown by Horizon 1h 39m San Diego SAN 11:04 → PDX 13:43AS 576 5h 55m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → RNO 06:10 → SFO 07:25UA 1954 2h 41m San Francisco SFO 10:06 → PDX 11:58UA 2624 5h 48m 100% 76%
DeltaDetails → RNO 09:05 → SLC 11:40DL 3719 · flown by SkyWest 3h 37m Salt Lake City SLC 15:17 → PDX 16:09DL 1244 7h 04m 100% 76%
DeltaDetails → RNO 10:33 → LAX 12:13DL 4099 · flown by SkyWest 2h 06m Los Angeles LAX 14:19 → PDX 16:34DL 2551 6h 01m 97% 74%
AlaskaDetails → RNO 19:50 → SEA 21:57AS 599 1h 29m Seattle SEA 23:26 → PDX 00:22 +1AS 2377 · flown by Horizon 4h 32m 91% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → RNO 06:10 → SFO 07:25UA 1954 47m San Francisco SFO 08:12 → PDX 10:07UA 5777 · flown by SkyWest 3h 57m 67% 54%
AlaskaDetails → RNO 14:46 → SEA 16:43AS 601 1h 16m Seattle SEA 17:59 → PDX 18:56AS 2302 · flown by Horizon 4h 10m 72% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON