Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 542 at 06:50 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 542 RNO 06:50 → PHX 08:46 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1741 RNO 19:28 → PHX 21:27 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 542 Southwest	RNO 06:50	PHX 08:46	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 1826 American	RNO 06:00	PHX 07:56	10%	8%	0.9%	no record
MQ 3338 Envoy	RNO 10:01	PHX 11:54	15%	4%	0.9%	no record
WN 2327 Southwest	RNO 11:55	PHX 13:51	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3353 Envoy	RNO 17:53	PHX 19:56	20%	6%	1.0%	no record
WN 121 Southwest	RNO 18:25	PHX 20:22	26%	11%	0.7%	no record
AA 1437 American Flight history →	RNO 13:06	PHX 15:00	30%	9%	0.8%	89%worse than usual
AA 1741 American Flight history →	RNO 19:28	PHX 21:27	32%	12%	0.8%	93%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON