Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1096 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 1096 RNO 05:30 → SAN 07:13 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3726 RNO 17:10 → SAN 18:54 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 1096 Southwest	RNO 05:30	SAN 07:13	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 758 Southwest	RNO 11:00	SAN 12:44	30%	7%	0.7%	no record
WN 3571 Southwest	RNO 22:35	SAN 00:19	30%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 3726 Southwest	RNO 17:10	SAN 18:54	35%	10%	0.6%	no record
AS 2234 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	RNO 07:48	SAN 09:25	21%	0%	0.0%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON