tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 42–43% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 599 Alaska Flight history → RNO 19:50 SEA 21:57 42% 10% 1.1% 61%
AS 601 Alaska Flight history → RNO 14:46 SEA 16:43 43% 8% 1.3% 72%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → RNO 17:35 → PDX 19:09AS 2127 · flown by Horizon 2h 21m Portland PDX 21:30 → SEA 22:27AS 2421 · flown by Horizon 4h 52m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → RNO 05:30 → SLC 07:52DL 1650 3h 43m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995 7h 19m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → RNO 05:30 → DEN 08:47UA 225 2h 44m Denver DEN 11:31 → SEA 13:35UA 2058 8h 05m 99% 73%
DeltaDetails → RNO 07:00 → LAX 08:45DL 4106 · flown by SkyWest 3h 24m Los Angeles LAX 12:09 → SEA 14:55DL 1045 7h 55m 98% 72%
DeltaDetails → RNO 09:05 → SLC 11:40DL 3719 · flown by SkyWest 1h 40m Salt Lake City SLC 13:20 → SEA 14:35DL 2921 5h 30m 100% 72%
AmericanDetails → RNO 13:06 → PHX 15:00AA 1437 2h 55m Phoenix PHX 17:55 → SEA 21:05AA 4307 · flown by Envoy 7h 59m 97% 70%
DeltaDetails → RNO 10:33 → LAX 12:13DL 4099 · flown by SkyWest 1h 47m Los Angeles LAX 14:00 → SEA 16:40DL 2606 6h 07m 95% 69%
DeltaDetails → RNO 15:13 → LAX 16:53DL 3902 · flown by SkyWest 2h 24m Los Angeles LAX 19:17 → SEA 22:05DL 1551 6h 52m 99% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → RNO 07:00 → LAX 08:45DL 4106 · flown by SkyWest 49m Los Angeles LAX 09:34 → SEA 12:10DL 304 5h 10m 73% 55%
UnitedDetails → RNO 13:58 → SFO 15:32UA 2279 55m San Francisco SFO 16:27 → SEA 18:47UA 2279 4h 49m 66% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON