Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 1745 at 16:25, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1745 Southwest	RNO 16:25	SJC 17:44	19%	9%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RNO 05:30 → SLC 07:52DL 1650	3h 58m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:50 → SJC 12:45DL 1254	7h 15m	99%	81%
Alaska Details →	RNO 12:02 → PDX 13:52AS 2395 · flown by Horizon	3h 58m Portland	PDX 17:50 → SJC 19:47AS 345	7h 45m	98%	80%
United Details →	RNO 05:30 → DEN 08:47UA 225	2h 34m Denver	DEN 11:21 → SJC 13:08UA 1256	7h 38m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	RNO 10:33 → LAX 12:13DL 4099 · flown by SkyWest	3h 53m Los Angeles	LAX 16:06 → SJC 17:26DL 1359	6h 53m	100%	76%
Delta Details →	RNO 15:13 → LAX 16:53DL 3902 · flown by SkyWest	1h 24m Los Angeles	LAX 18:17 → SJC 19:32DL 3883 · flown by SkyWest	4h 19m	92%	75%
Delta Details →	RNO 09:05 → SLC 11:40DL 3719 · flown by SkyWest	3h 30m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:10 → SJC 16:04DL 1260	6h 59m	100%	71%
Delta Details →	RNO 13:04 → SLC 15:34DL 1595	1h 51m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → SJC 18:26DL 3937 · flown by SkyWest	5h 22m	91%	68%
American Details →	RNO 05:22 → DFW 10:41AA 1361	1h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:55 → SJC 13:52AA 2834	8h 30m	92%	66%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	RNO 14:46 → SEA 16:43AS 601	1h 03m Seattle	SEA 17:46 → SJC 19:58AS 1303	5h 12m	60%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON