Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1650 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 1650 RNO 05:30 → SLC 07:52 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 3732 RNO 17:35 → SLC 20:07 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1650 Delta Flight history →	RNO 05:30	SLC 07:52	7%	3%	0.7%	91%
DL 3719 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RNO 09:05	SLC 11:40	10%	4%	1.5%	100%
DL 1595 Delta Flight history →	RNO 13:04	SLC 15:34	19%	5%	0.7%	90%
DL 3732 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RNO 17:35	SLC 20:07	20%	8%	2.3%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON