Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 3–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4806 ROC 06:05 → BOS 07:35 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 4171 ROC 12:00 → BOS 13:26 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4806 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ROC 06:05	BOS 07:35	3%	2%	0.8%	93%
YX 4703 Republic	ROC 17:50	BOS 19:27	12%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 4171 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ROC 12:00	BOS 13:26	13%	4%	0.8%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON