Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1485 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 1485 ROC 06:00 → CLT 08:03 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 2320 ROC 18:50 → CLT 20:54 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1485 American Flight history →	ROC 06:00	CLT 08:03	10%	4%	1.5%	85%
AA 2742 American	ROC 15:02	CLT 17:04	24%	6%	1.1%	no record
AA 2320 American Flight history →	ROC 18:50	CLT 20:54	27%	6%	1.1%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON