Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 1409 at 06:00, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1409 ROC 06:00 → DTW 07:21 · 5% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1409 Delta	ROC 06:00	DTW 07:21	5%	3%	0.9%	no record
DL 5240 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ROC 09:55	DTW 11:18	12%	2%	1.0%	88%
DL 5231 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ROC 17:48	DTW 19:15	35%	27%	5.5%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON