tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 26–30% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
B6 1043 JetBlue Flight history → ROC 13:29 MCO 16:22 26% 12% 1.6% 74%
WN 2298 Southwest ROC 16:30 MCO 19:19 30% 12% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → ROC 06:05 → BOS 07:35AA 4806 · flown by Republic 1h 39m Boston BOS 09:14 → MCO 12:32AA 2720 6h 27m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → ROC 06:00 → ATL 08:10DL 1200 1h 15m Atlanta ATL 09:25 → MCO 10:57DL 1658 4h 57m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → ROC 06:14 → ORD 07:20UA 2008 1h 52m Chicago ORD 09:12 → MCO 13:13UA 1643 6h 59m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → ROC 06:10 → IAD 07:31UA 4578 · flown by GoJet 1h 14m Dulles IAD 08:45 → MCO 11:08UA 379 4h 58m 91% 80%
AmericanDetails → ROC 06:00 → CLT 08:03AA 1485 2h 56m Charlotte CLT 10:59 → MCO 12:39AA 1576 6h 39m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → ROC 06:02 → DCA 07:45AA 5351 · flown by PSA 3h 15m Washington DCA 11:00 → MCO 13:35AA 1153 7h 33m 97% 78%
AmericanDetails → ROC 06:05 → PHL 07:32AA 5930 · flown by Piedmont 1h 12m Philadelphia PHL 08:44 → MCO 11:16AA 2084 5h 11m 93% 78%
AmericanDetails → ROC 07:05 → PHL 08:32AA 5904 · flown by Piedmont 2h 36m Philadelphia PHL 11:08 → MCO 13:41AA 3268 6h 36m 97% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ROC 17:47 → ORD 18:55UA 2059 1h 26m Chicago ORD 20:21 → MCO 00:09 +1UA 617 6h 22m 72% 35%
UnitedDetails → ROC 19:10 → EWR 20:30UA 4385 · flown by GoJet 1h 25m Newark EWR 21:55 → MCO 00:41 +1UA 1190 5h 31m 55% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON