Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3597 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3597 Southwest	ROC 07:50	MDW 08:48	7%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 2791 Southwest	ROC 19:40	MDW 20:38	33%	9%	5.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Rochester). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ROC 06:00 → ATL 08:10DL 1200	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	6h 56m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	ROC 09:55 → DTW 11:18DL 5240 · flown by Endeavor	1h 07m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → MDW 12:46DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	3h 51m	92%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON