Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4441 at 07:04 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 38–56%.

Safest bet that day AA 4441 ROC 07:04 → ORD 08:20 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 2059 ROC 17:47 → ORD 18:55 · 56% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4441 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ROC 07:04	ORD 08:20	7%	2%	1.0%	87%
UA 2008 United Flight history →	ROC 06:14	ORD 07:20	12%	5%	0.8%	75%
OO 5518 SkyWest	ROC 10:41	ORD 11:49	20%	10%	2.1%	no record
AA 4104 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ROC 11:34	ORD 12:42	23%	5%	1.5%	90%worse than usual
G7 4609 GoJet	ROC 12:49	ORD 13:54	30%	9%	4.9%	no record
OO 6316 SkyWest	ROC 20:36	ORD 21:36	38%	20%	6.7%	no record
UA 2059 United Flight history →	ROC 17:47	ORD 18:55	56%	24%	1.6%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON