tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, B6 1950 at 15:00, with a 29% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
B6 1950 JetBlue Flight history → RSW 15:00 BUF 17:50 29% 14% 3.2% 36%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385 1h 51m Atlanta ATL 09:10 → BUF 11:11DL 1384 5h 36m 96% 83%
AmericanDetails → RSW 07:57 → CLT 09:58AA 2241 3h 07m Charlotte CLT 13:05 → BUF 14:54AA 2442 6h 57m 96% 74%
DeltaDetails → RSW 17:49 → DTW 20:45DL 2559 2h 05m Detroit DTW 22:50 → BUF 23:58DL 978 6h 09m 94% 74%
DeltaDetails → RSW 10:48 → ATL 12:27DL 1089 1h 33m Atlanta ATL 14:00 → BUF 16:03DL 2266 5h 15m 95% 73%
UnitedDetails → RSW 11:59 → IAD 14:30UA 2054 3h 00m Dulles IAD 17:30 → BUF 19:03UA 4823 · flown by CommuteAir 7h 04m 100% 72%
JetBlueDetails → RSW 11:02 → BOS 14:19B6 266 3h 48m Boston BOS 18:07 → BUF 19:53B6 715 8h 51m 97% 70%
DeltaDetails → RSW 13:16 → ATL 15:05DL 1153 1h 28m Atlanta ATL 16:33 → BUF 18:41DL 2050 5h 25m 94% 68%
JetBlueDetails → RSW 16:41 → JFK 19:37B6 1530 3h 02m New York JFK 22:39 → BUF 00:25 +1B6 102 7h 44m 96% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON