tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, F9 1545 at 21:13, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
F9 1545 Frontier Flight history → RSW 21:13 CLE 00:06 26% 9% 2.5% 62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361 1h 10m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → CLE 11:32DL 2978 4h 47m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → RSW 08:03 → ATL 09:50DL 1395 2h 00m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → CLE 13:32DL 775 5h 29m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → RSW 10:48 → ATL 12:27DL 1089 1h 09m Atlanta ATL 13:36 → CLE 15:20DL 2545 4h 32m 92% 73%
DeltaDetails → RSW 13:16 → ATL 15:05DL 1153 3h 48m Atlanta ATL 18:53 → CLE 20:42DL 2150 7h 26m 100% 71%
AmericanDetails → RSW 06:01 → DFW 08:05AA 1281 2h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:47 → CLE 14:26AA 2336 8h 25m 100% 71%
AmericanDetails → RSW 07:57 → CLT 09:58AA 2241 3h 34m Charlotte CLT 13:32 → CLE 15:12AA 1562 7h 15m 96% 71%
UnitedDetails → RSW 08:44 → ORD 10:59UA 2347 1h 54m Chicago ORD 12:53 → CLE 15:20UA 1878 6h 36m 97% 69%
DeltaDetails → RSW 15:41 → ATL 17:34DL 1196 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 19:55 → CLE 21:45DL 1339 6h 04m 95% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → RSW 16:41 → JFK 19:37B6 1530 1h 03m New York JFK 20:40 → CLE 22:27B6 2768 5h 46m 72% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON