Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 18 at 06:03 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 18 RSW 06:03 → CLT 08:10 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1930 RSW 18:57 → CLT 20:57 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 18 American	RSW 06:03	CLT 08:10	6%	2%	2.0%	no record
AA 2241 American Flight history →	RSW 07:57	CLT 09:58	7%	3%	2.4%	97%
AA 1781 American	RSW 09:57	CLT 11:57	10%	4%	1.9%	no record
AA 2018 American Flight history →	RSW 13:44	CLT 15:44	19%	6%	2.7%	72%
AA 1930 American Flight history →	RSW 18:57	CLT 20:57	24%	6%	2.0%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON