tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 1630 at 11:40, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 1630 Delta RSW 11:40 CVG 14:07 11% 4% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361 1h 27m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → CVG 11:28DL 3160 4h 43m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 10:59 → CVG 12:22DL 3149 6h 47m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → RSW 08:03 → ATL 09:50DL 1395 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 13:48 → CVG 15:11DL 3169 7h 08m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → RSW 08:59 → EWR 12:04UA 2477 1h 49m Newark EWR 13:53 → CVG 16:02UA 3455 · flown by Republic 7h 03m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → RSW 08:44 → ORD 10:59UA 2347 2h 00m Chicago ORD 12:59 → CVG 15:30UA 4388 · flown by GoJet 6h 46m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → RSW 11:59 → IAD 14:30UA 2054 2h 55m Dulles IAD 17:25 → CVG 19:08UA 4521 · flown by GoJet 7h 09m 100% 77%
DeltaDetails → RSW 10:48 → ATL 12:27DL 1089 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → CVG 16:41DL 1008 5h 53m 98% 76%
AmericanDetails → RSW 06:01 → DFW 08:05AA 1281 2h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:55 → CVG 14:13AA 3305 8h 12m 100% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → RSW 17:49 → DTW 20:45DL 2559 50m Detroit DTW 21:35 → CVG 22:53DL 5478 · flown by Endeavor 5h 04m 71% 51%
AmericanDetails → RSW 14:30 → DFW 16:35AA 2740 1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:35 → CVG 21:04AA 799 6h 34m 74% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON