tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 2916 at 11:45, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2916 American Flight history → RSW 11:45 DCA 14:23 18% 6% 2.2% 71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380 5h 52m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361 2h 26m Atlanta ATL 10:59 → DCA 12:46DL 1798 6h 01m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → RSW 06:02 → ORD 08:20AA 2613 1h 31m Chicago ORD 09:51 → DCA 12:57AA 315 6h 55m 94% 77%
DeltaDetails → RSW 08:03 → ATL 09:50DL 1395 3h 19m Atlanta ATL 13:09 → DCA 14:56DL 360 6h 53m 99% 74%
DeltaDetails → RSW 14:32 → MSP 17:04DL 2400 3h 26m Minneapolis MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:56DL 2961 9h 24m 95% 73%
AmericanDetails → RSW 06:01 → DFW 08:05AA 1281 1h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:31 → DCA 13:27AA 2399 7h 26m 96% 73%
UnitedDetails → RSW 08:44 → ORD 10:59UA 2347 1h 46m Chicago ORD 12:45 → DCA 15:52UA 752 7h 08m 97% 70%
DeltaDetails → RSW 10:48 → ATL 12:27DL 1089 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 15:35 → DCA 17:30DL 850 6h 42m 99% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → RSW 11:50 → ORD 14:06AA 2437 49m Chicago ORD 14:55 → DCA 18:00AA 2769 6h 10m 64% 36%
UnitedDetails → RSW 14:12 → ORD 16:22UA 2472 57m Chicago ORD 17:19 → DCA 20:26UA 2761 6h 14m 61% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON