Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1378 at 07:57 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 1378 RSW 07:57 → DEN 09:58 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 778 RSW 16:06 → DEN 18:11 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1378 United	RSW 07:57	DEN 09:58	6%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 596 Southwest	RSW 09:15	DEN 11:16	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 778 United	RSW 16:06	DEN 18:11	32%	10%	1.2%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385	55m Atlanta	ATL 08:14 → DEN 09:26DL 346	5h 51m	94%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON