Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2001 Delta	RSW 12:30	DTW 15:20	15%	4%	1.5%	no record
DL 2559 Delta Flight history →	RSW 17:49	DTW 20:45	22%	5%	1.8%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385	1h 04m Atlanta	ATL 08:23 → DTW 10:19DL 643	4h 44m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240	6h 11m	99%	83%
United Details →	RSW 08:59 → EWR 12:04UA 2477	2h 03m Newark	EWR 14:07 → DTW 16:07UA 3437 · flown by Republic	7h 08m	97%	79%
American Details →	RSW 06:02 → ORD 08:20AA 2613	1h 22m Chicago	ORD 09:42 → DTW 12:05AA 3977 · flown by Envoy	6h 03m	94%	79%
Delta Details →	RSW 10:48 → ATL 12:27DL 1089	1h 33m Atlanta	ATL 14:00 → DTW 15:55DL 1031	5h 07m	95%	77%
American Details →	RSW 07:57 → CLT 09:58AA 2241	1h 21m Charlotte	CLT 11:19 → DTW 13:06AA 1683	5h 09m	93%	75%
Delta Details →	RSW 13:16 → ATL 15:05DL 1153	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 18:11 → DTW 20:13DL 1478	6h 57m	99%	74%
United Details →	RSW 11:59 → IAD 14:30UA 2054	2h 52m Dulles	IAD 17:22 → DTW 19:02UA 6246 · flown by Mesa	7h 03m	100%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	RSW 18:00 → PHL 20:59AA 1866	1h 13m Philadelphia	PHL 22:12 → DTW 00:07 +1AA 5418 · flown by PSA	6h 07m	72%	57%
American Details →	RSW 14:30 → DFW 16:35AA 2740	49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:24 → DTW 21:04AA 2508	6h 34m	66%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON