Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, UA 2054 at 11:59, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 2054 United Flight history →	RSW 11:59	IAD 14:30	8%	4%	1.2%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 09:54 → IAD 11:41DL 1444	6h 06m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	RSW 08:03 → ATL 09:50DL 1395	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 12:55 → IAD 14:39DL 2135	6h 36m	99%	84%
American Details →	RSW 06:01 → DFW 08:05AA 1281	2h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:09 → IAD 14:03AA 524	8h 02m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	RSW 14:32 → MSP 17:04DL 2400	2h 46m Minneapolis	MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest	8h 48m	92%	75%
Delta Details →	RSW 10:48 → ATL 12:27DL 1089	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 15:23 → IAD 17:12DL 1695	6h 24m	98%	75%
United Details →	RSW 08:44 → ORD 10:59UA 2347	1h 52m Chicago	ORD 12:51 → IAD 15:46UA 1128	7h 02m	97%	71%
Delta Details →	RSW 13:16 → ATL 15:05DL 1153	1h 34m Atlanta	ATL 16:39 → IAD 18:31DL 2902	5h 15m	96%	71%
American Details →	RSW 13:44 → CLT 15:44AA 2018	3h 51m Charlotte	CLT 19:35 → IAD 21:02AA 1954	7h 18m	98%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	RSW 17:49 → DTW 20:45DL 2559	53m Detroit	DTW 21:38 → IAD 23:13DL 3988 · flown by SkyWest	5h 24m	72%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON